Sunday 17 July 2011

please be seated for the stress test

because it's theatre:

this from theautomaticearth.blogspot.com [they're pretty succinct]

Ilargi: The more the ratings agencies come under fire for downgrading, the more they do just that -or so it seems-: downgrade (or threaten to). While it may seem strange that they still have credibility left after being late on just about any call they've made in ages, don't let's forget that they are very much part of the political and banking system, and therefore fully engaged in extend and pretend policies. It's still funny that the EU cries foul over Fitch, a company that boasts 60% French ownership.

Perhaps it would be even better if the ratings agencies start rating European banks for real. The stress tests certainly don't do that. All you really need to know about those tests is in this one line from Harry Wilson and Philip Aldrick at the Telegraph:

European banks set for 'chaos Monday' after nine fail stress test

While Greek bonds are trading at about half their face value in the market, the EBA only required banks to assume a 15% loss on their holdings. [that's a joke test- Costick67]

...
Ilargi: Maybe they're thinking Greek debt will recover? Not very likely to happen, the yield on Greek 2-year bonds broke over 32% this week. Keep that up for a bit, and Greece is going going gone.

The reality is, we're just watching a bunch of Punch and Judy shows here, stress tests, downgrades, the US debt ceiling "controversy". Obama has now put his job on the line to get a deal done; he must be pretty sure he’ll get one in the end; a job and a deal.

Still, whether it comes to either that potential US downgrade Moody‘s and S&P are threatening, or to the debt ceiling charade, or the stress tests, all of the above are based on entirely the wrong numbers, and I wouldn't be one bit surprised if that is fully intentional: all are meant to hide what's really happening, and where the real hurt lies. [see the Hudson article below- Costick67]